Archive for the ‘Bradley Effect’ Category

>Bradley…Reverse Bradley

October 9, 2008


Be sure to read the posts below this one. The Western Tribune has a new columnist, Sandy Miranda, and I decided to be nice and post her column (as well as my own). She’s asking for responses to the questions she asks. I only ask that if you respond about her column with a comment on my blog, that you email her the same comments.

Aren’t we glad that there are people who understand statistics and go to the trouble of computing the chance of everything, like Obama losing Ohio and still winning the election (70.05%) or McCain losing Ohio and still winning the election (0.33%). The folks at fivethirtyeight have loaded their site with scenarios and poll results and maps and more.

The Bradley Effect

Pundits keep talking about the Bradley effect and wondering if it will come into play this election. The Bradley effect is, of course, white guys saying they will vote for the black guy but then not doing it. Many are expecting a Reverse Bradley Effect, whereby white people won’t admit they will vote for a black guy, but when it comes down to it, for the sake of their future, they vote for the black guy.

North Carolina governor Mike Easley thinks that could happen in his state. He was on the Rachel Maddow show last night and said his barber (who, he said, is a guy that can legally hold a straight razor up to your neck and ask a question, thus creating a good focus group to get answers from) is predicting just that. He speaks of white guys that have said all along they wouldn’t vote for Obama that will in fact vote for him. He spoke of Obama’s trips to his state, his 400 paid staffers in the state, and reminded us that Obama prepared for the debate in his state, and is connecting with people in his state.

Now try to factor this in. Ben Smith had this:

An Obama supporter, who canvassed for the candidate in the working-class, white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, sends over an account that, in various forms, I’ve heard a lot in recent weeks.

“What’s crazy is this,” he writes. “I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n—-r and mention how they don’t know what to do because of the economy.”

Now, this kind of crap goes on, and I get questioned for making race an issue? With all this going on: Bradley and reverse Bradley and use of the N word and people shouting “Kill him” at McCain rally’s when Obama’s name is mentioned, do you really think it should be ignored?

No way.

Vote for that one. There you can read the history of That One and buy That One merchandise.